A potential federal government shutdown isless than two daysfar from the situation as members of Congress continue to disagree on financing the government past September 30.

Even though Republicans hold Capitol Hill and the White House, they require at least seven Democratic senators to support them in order to pass a spending bill according to the Senate’s regulations. Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer, however, is insisting that any funding bill include an extension of theincreased subsidies for Affordable Care Act premiumsalong with several other items, to secure his party’s backing. GOP leaders are seeking anextension of fundingfor seven weeks, along with extra funds for security within the legislative, executive, and judicial branches.

President Donald Trump convened a meeting with leading Republican and Democratic congressional figures on Monday, yet there was minimal indication of advancement. “I believe we’re moving toward a government shutdown,” Vice President JD Vance stated following the discussion.

If the deadlock remains unresolved, the upcoming government shutdown could be different from any seen in recent years. Although no two shutdowns are identical, Trump and the White House Office of Management and Budget have already indicated they are prepared to adopt a completely new approach — advising agencies todownsize workersin initiatives that have lost financial support and which do not match Trump’s goals.

Trump has had prior experience with government shutdowns. Themost recent onehappened during his initial term, beginning in late December 2018 and continuing for 35 days, thelongest on record.

Here’s what is currently known regarding the approaching government shutdown:

What occurs during a government shutdown?

Each fiscal year, which starts on October 1, Congress is responsible for allocating funds to numerous federal departments and operations. If legislators do not approve a full-year spending plan or extend funding through a continuing resolution, a significant number of agencies and programs will be forced to close until additional funding is approved.

Lawmakers have not yet approved any of the 12 appropriations bills that form the federal discretionary spending budget in both legislative chambers. Therefore, the upcoming shutdown would be classified as a complete shutdown.

In previous standoffs, Congress provided yearly funding for specific agencies, enabling them to remain functional while other federal departments shut down. This scenario is referred to as a partial government shutdown.

From 1980 onward, the Bipartisan Policy Center reports there have been 14 instances of government shutdowns.

What is the cutoff date for the shutdown?

The closure will start on October 1, early Wednesday morning, provided Congress does not take action prior to that date.

Which programs and payments will cease?

Each government shutdown can vary to some extent, but usually, services that are vital for safeguarding lives and property are considered essential and stay operational. Agencies prepare what are referred to as contingency plans, which outline which operations will continue and how many staff members will be present, often without receiving compensation.

However, in an unusual action, OMB is not this time postingagencies’ shutdown contingency planson its website. Rather, the plans are available exclusively on each agency’s site — which complicates evaluating how the Trump administration will manage a shutdown and which functions it will consider vital. (The OMB mentioned in a late September memo that it had not yet obtained updated contingency plans from all agencies.)

The capacity of the U.S. Food and Drug Administration to offer public health supervision would be negatively impacted during a shutdown, as stated in an updated report from the Department of Health and Human Services.contingency plan. The agency would be restricted in the inspections it could carry out, although it would continue to address emergencies.

“If there is a shutdown in funding, the FDA’s capacity to safeguard and enhance public health and safety would be greatly affected, leading to numerous tasks being postponed or halted,” the document stated.

In the meantime, the Department of Education stated that it wouldfurloughMost of its employees would be furloughed during a shutdown, although it would still distribute Pell Grants and federal student loans, and would continue to provide Title I and IDEA grant funding. States, schools, and other entities could still access the billions of dollars in awards the department issued over the summer.

On the other hand, the majority of Department of Homeland Security staff would keep their jobs. Most workers in Customs and Border Protection would remain employed, along with those who serve in Immigration and Customs Enforcement, the Transportation Security Administration, the Secret Service, Citizenship and Immigration Services, and the Federal Emergency Management Agency.

Earlier shutdowns halted immigration court proceedings; and postponed certain federal loans for homebuyers and small enterprises, along with other consequences.

In the latest government closure, students faced difficulties in obtaining necessary resourcestax documentsto obtain financial assistance for the spring semester from the Internal Revenue Service, and the US Department of Agriculture cautioned that it could only ensure to providefood stamp benefits through February.

Notably, key benefit programs, including Social Security and Medicare, will remain in place. The unemployed will also continue to receive their unemployment benefits.

Some governmental operations may persist – at least for a limited duration – if they are supported by fees or other forms of funding. For example, the Internal Revenue Service stated that it could utilize some of the money it received from the Inflation Reduction Act to maintain all of its approximately 74,300 employees – as it had previously indicated it would do when shutdowns were anticipated. The IRS is currently in the process of implementing dozens of tax law changes included in the Republicans’One Grand, Wonderful Bill Act, including several that come into effect this year.

If the government closes down next month, it is probable that immigration, border patrol, and defense operations supported throughBBB, which Trump enacted in July, would remain in effect.

“Fortunately, H.R. 1 offered sufficient funding to maintain the continuation of numerous key priorities from the Trump Administration,” the OMB stated in its memo to agencies regarding the development of large-scale reduction plans, referencing the president’s domestic policy initiative.

The Department of Defense stated in itscontingency planthat it identifies as its top priorities the protection of the southern border, Middle East missions, the Golden Dome missile defense system, and other similar efforts.

According to the Senate Veterans’ Affairs Committee, most medical services provided by the Department of Veterans Affairs and the Veterans Crisis Line would remain operational during a government shutdown. Nevertheless, the VA would be unable to collect co-payments, offer suicide prevention grants to local providers, or deliver care to veterans with severe mental health issues or those facing homelessness.

Some level of discretion exists for agencies and administrations in determining which services are considered crucial, noted Molly Reynolds, the acting director of the governance studies program at the Brookings Institution.

During Trump’s initial term, Reynolds mentioned that the administration implemented certain actions to ease the impact of the shutdown, like permitting the IRS to handle tax refunds — a change from previous shutdowns.

But this year might not be the same.

“A memo from the OMB warning of extensive federal job cuts in the event of a shutdown implies that this time, they may be aiming to make the shutdown more difficult,” she stated.

Will national parks remain accessible?

The effect of closures on the more than 400 national park locations has varied significantly in recent shutdowns.

In 2013, approximately 8 million recreational visits and $414 million in revenue were lost over a 16-day government shutdown, as reported by the National Parks Conservation Association using data from the National Park Service. During the latest shutdown in 2019, several parks stayed open, but no visitor services were available. The Park Service is estimated to have lost $400,000 daily due to missed entrance fees. Additionally, visitors would have normally spent around $20 million on an average January day in surrounding areas.

Several states have taken action to maintain the operation of certain national parks by utilizing their own financial resources. When a government shutdown was anticipated in the fall of 2023, Utah announced it would ensure the continued access to the Mighty 5 parks—Arches, Bryce Canyon, Canyonlands, Capitol Reef, and Zion—while Arizona intended to keep the Grand Canyon functioning. Similarly, Colorado stated it would also maintain its four national parks and other federal lands open.

What is the effect on air travel?

Air traffic controllers and Transportation Security Administration personnel are generally considered essential and are required to work, even without pay. However, staffing shortages during previous government shutdowns have caused flight disruptions.

In January 2019, the choice of 10 air traffic controllers to remain at home contributed toend that shutdown. Their absence temporarily shut down traveldelayed operations at New York’s LaGuardia airport and led to disruptions at other significant airports, such as those in New Jersey, Philadelphia, and Atlanta, prompting Trump to support a short-term government funding plan.

What about the effect on federal employees?

Federal employees are most affected by government shutdowns. Some are sent home without pay, while others are deemed essential and must keep working. However, many won’t receive their pay until the situation is resolved — although they might not notice the effect right away since their October salary may be delayed until later in the month.

In March, the most recent instance when a federal government shutdown was a possibility before it was prevented, over 1.4 million workers were classified as essential, as reported by Rachel Snyderman, the managing director of economic policy at the Bipartisan Policy Center. Approximately 750,000 of these individuals would have remained on payroll because their wages were covered by different funding channels.

Almost 900,000 more employees would have been sent home without pay. (Snyderman pointed out that the figures did not account for the job losses and resignations that took place during the initial weeks of the Trump administration.)

The Department of Defense notified current active duty and reserve military personnel, along with civilian staff, in late September that they will not receive pay after September 30 until the agency’s funding is approved by Congress, as stated in a memo seen by bootstrap4u.com. Active duty personnel are required to keep reporting for their duties.

Also, judiciary officials warnedBy late September, federal courts might face a shutdown in just a few days, earlier than in past instances, due to limited financial resources. Although judges and Supreme Court justices would still receive their salaries, numerous other court staff members would not.

Federal employees are assured of receiving their delayed pay once the dispute is settled. However, this does not apply to federal contractors, who might be sent home or temporarily unemployed by their companies during a government shutdown.

How does a shutdown impact the economy?

Closing down operations can lead to significant impacts on the economy because federal funding is put on hold, and numerous federal employees reduce their spending during periods without paychecks.

A five-week government shutdown during 2018-2019 led to a $3 billion reduction in economic growth, which is unlikely to be regained, as reported by aCongressional Budget Office estimate. It mentioned that certain private sector companies would never recover their lost revenue.

Additionally, as the IRS cut back on its compliance efforts during the shutdown, the CBO projected that tax revenues would be approximately $2 billion less — a significant portion of which would not be recovered.

Furthermore, it would be challenging to assess the state of the economy — which is currently unstable — during a government shutdown. The Bureau of Labor Statistics would not release anyeconomic reports, including the highly anticipated monthly jobs report on October 3, according to the Department of Labor’s updated shutdown plan.

The effects extend past the national administration.

The U.S. Travel Association sent a message to lawmakers at the end of September, asking them to prevent a government shutdown, as it warned that this would lead to flight delays, extended security lines at airports, and cancelled travel plans.

A shutdown is a completely avoidable setback for America’s travel industry — costing $1 billion each week — and impacting millions of travelers and businesses, while adding undue pressure to an already stretched federal travel workforce,” wrote Geoff Freeman, the association’s CEO. “The effects of not taking action are immediate and serious.

This narrative has been enhanced with more information.

John Fritze, Camila DeChalus, and Annie Grayer from bootstrap4u.com contributed to this report.

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